Taking a different approach

Dawn Approach is the horse on everyone's betting slip ahead of tomorrow's Investec Epsom Derby.
However, as a keen follower of trends in big races, Jim Bolger's three-year-old misses out on one big statistic - it's debut was not made at a Group One track.

On the face of it this stat seems rather innocuous, but experience has taught me you can never write off the trends and every winner over the past twenty years has begun their career on a Group One track.
Why this has an effect is open to debate - one theory goes that the owners and trainers know what they have in their hands and so prepare them from the beginning.

Dawn Approach flies in the face of this theory, given he was sired by Bolger's only other Derby success -2008 winner New Approach - so one would assume that Godolphin were fully aware of the horse's ability.
Indeed, Dawn Approach didn't even get to a group one track the second time out, again running on a Yielding Naas track.

While the wins there under the conditions will give reassurances about the stamina, I'm nevertheless going to plump for a horse that ticks all the boxes - Battle of Marengo.

Placing third first time out at Leopardstown, BoM has since been unbeaten and at the time of writing is the only other horse shorter than 6/1 with the bookies - both of these factors matching up with the trends.

The 5/1 price generally available on BoM could move out over the next 24 hours as more money goes on DA but this will again only help meet the criteria, as only two clear favourites have won the renewal in the past 10 years.

It would be foolhardy to completely eliminate Dawn Approach and so the decision is whether to back Battle of Marengo without Dawn Approach (3/1 at Stan James) or take advantage of BetVictor's offer of returning all net losses should Dawn Approach win and Back BoM at fives - an insurance policy if you will.
Whatever you decide, good luck!

US Masters 2013

If you are a golf fan then you don't need me to tell you that the Masters - considered by many to be the "season opener" begins this weekend and I have no doubt, like me, you are pacing the floor in anticipation.

However for the more casual observer, the first of the year's four Majors still presents a great opportunity to make some cash at the bookies' expense.

Golf is great sport to bet on for two reasons.

Firstly, the odds available often offer great value with some high prices even for the fancied participants.

Secondly, you are betting on one individual human being whose form, past performances at the course and preparation are all influencing factors. This obviously differs to - let's say - horse racing, where you are betting on an animal that can be unpredictable despite the aforementioned factors; or a football match where you have a full team of players whose mentality needs to be considered.

Sadly if this is your first time betting on golf, the value I alluded to in my first point isn't on offer with this year's favourite. Tiger Woods is understandably the bookies' pick, indeed for that matter he is mine as well as we look ahead to the tournament.

However, he is generally only available at 4/1 and I'm afraid the risks outweigh the benefits for this particular bet. And I hate to say it but while Rory McIlroy is much better value at 8/1, instinct is telling me to stay away from him given his leniency towards unpredictability and the current questions over the Nike equipment in his bag.

While another beauty of golf betting is the each-way market - generally you get a quarter of the odds  for a top five finsish  - Tiger's price means the best you can hope for is your money back if he fails to emerge from the clubhouse on Sunday wearing the green jacket.

Instead the way to go is to look for golfers who could make a promising start in the early stages, or alternatively ones who show the potential to make the top ten.

In the first category Justin Rose fits the bill. He's not number three in the world for no reason and has had a solid start to 2013 finishing in the top five in his two tournaments. Rose can be expected to make a strong start and at a whopping 20/1 with Bet365, presents a perfect opportunity to place a bet with a view to laying after the second or third day. Of course to lay you need a Betfair account - click here to open one - and if you're not entirely sure how to go about it see this guide.

In the second category, Bill Haas and Lee Westwood are my picks. Haas has had a decent start to the year with five top ten finishes and he can take his promising form to Augusta. Betvictor go 6/1 for the top ten finish and this presents fantastic value for a player whose profile is in the ascendancy.

To use golf parlance, Westwood is as close as you can get to a gimme for a top ten finish. Best priced 9/4 with Paddy Power, you are not going to retire on your winnings but take into account that Worksop's golden boy has geared his entire preparation around this event and it offers a good opportunity as a cover bet should the other two not fulfil their potential.

My concern with Westwood is his putting - crucial at Augusta - and despite reports that his Ping Scottsdale is on fire on the practice green, the proof is in the pudding and I'm not prepared to tip him for the very top at this stage.

Finally no Masters betting review can be complete without a nod to Phil Mickleson. He's only one win behind Tiger at Augusta and will be in the frame again this time. However he offers no value for a top ten finish and while Stan James' 12/1 for the win is attractive, I still can't get past the Tiger factor. What effectively equates to 2/1 for a top five finish should he not come out on tops means I will have to overlook "Lefty" on this occasion.