RBS Six Nations 2014 Championship preview

They say the bookie always wins... well it's not surprising when you look at the odds available for the forthcoming Six Nations tournament.

Even excluding Scotland and Italy from the equation, some firms have an over-round way above 110%.

Now don't get me wrong, this Six Nations promises to be a thriller and it really will be a close one to call.

And of course I don't expect bookmakers to run themselves as a charity, but the 2/1 generally available on Wales to win the championship just does not represent value.

What the traders are saying is Wales have a 33% chance of winning outright, but quite frankly any one of Wales, England, Ireland and France are in with a shout this year.

Added to this fact is that history is not on the side of the Taffs. No team has won three successive championships in over a century, and traditionally the country which has provided the backbone of a successful Lions tour seldom goes on to do well in the next home championship.

There will be many pundits who think laying Wales might be an option, but I would also counter that you write a Warren Gatland team off at your peril.

The quality in the Welsh side is plain for all to see - North, Halfpenny, Warburton, Falateu come instantly to mind and a few other besides - so really, to my mind, there is no bet to be had on the outright winner of the championship.

Backing Wales isn't worth the risk and the lay is too much of a risk.

However, all is not lost. Betvictor is offering a forecast market - where you select the teams who will occupy first and second place -  and all of a sudden things become more interesting.

Let us firstly assume Wales will finish in the top two. While history may be against them, they are nonetheless the strongest side on paper before a ball is kicked.

Ireland will miss Sean O'Brien

They are also experienced, while still largely youthful, and the spine of the side has played together for some time now. Gatland and Shaun Edwards are not the type of characters to allow complacency to set in with the players, or egos to become too largely inflated, either so while the Dragons may not go all the way, they will be sniffing round the trophy come the end of March.

Let's also eliminate Ireland from the equation. A bold and dangerous thing to do but firstly Sean O'Brien's absence will be a bitter blow to them and trips to France and England will not make this an easy tournament.

Wales have also recorded a couple of victories on Dublin soil in recent years, and save for a first half capitulation last year, have had the better of the Irish in the past four encounters.

So that's three tough games for an Ireland side that still isn't quite where it might be going into this tournament.

We must also, without going into too much detail, assume Scotland and Italy will not be mixing it at the top end of the table this year. Both will have their part to play and will no doubt provide at least one or two shocks before spring has sprung but the overwhelming evidence is that neither side has the ability to make too much of an impact.

So that leaves us with England and France, and really, where to begin?

No one ever knows what to expect from our cousins across the channel in any season, and this one is no different.

However, one thing is for sure - the pressure is on coach Philippe Saint-André to get results this time round if he is to still be gainfully employed in April.

And with home games against England and Ireland, Wales looks to be the sternest test Les Bleus face on paper.

England coach Stuart Lancaster

England on the other hand have gone from strength to strength under Stuart Lancaster and to date, they have only two Six Nations defeats - both against Wales - to their name since he took over.

They have home advantage over Wales, but this is practically nullified when you consider the Welsh side's results at Twickenham in recent years.

And the Red Rose must also trek north of the border. The Scots enjoy nothing more than spoiling an English party and no doubt feel that another Calcutta Cup upset is well overdue. Indeed, if one was to try to pinpoint the shock I referred to earlier then this game would undoubtedly be one on the shortlist.

So in summary, on the face of it Wales could have the beating of all five of their opponents if they play to their ability and stay injury-free.

England have tough tests against both the Welsh and French, while the Calcutta Cup holds no promises for them.

France, however, have a lot to prove and if they fulfil their potential will indeed do so. If keeping Saint-André in a job is top of the players' priorities then the Wales v France match on February 21 could well be the championship - if not Grand Slam - decider.

So with Betvictor offering 6/1 on Wales to finish first and France second, and the same price on the opposite happening, you can buy yourself an effective 5/1 reverse forecast on both Wales/France options, which represents far greater value than the outright market.

Understanding what lay betting is (Part 1)

An area of betting guaranteed to cause confusion for many is lay betting.

I quite often talk about "laying on Betfair" to people who otherwise thoroughly understand betting, but who don't have a clue even what the term means.

More often than not, they will then glaze over when you try to elaborate on the basic - it's when you bet on something to lose rather than to win.

However, if you have read this fair then clearly you do want to know. So here I will give you my take on how it works.

Let's begin by looking at a football match from this weekend and the odds available on that match.

Chelsea were largely available at 1/5 to beat West Ham. The draw was 11/2 and West Ham were around 12/1 for the win.

Let's say you had a feeling it was a game Chelsea weren't going to win. You were not sure whether it would be a West Ham win or a draw, but you wanted to place a bet on.

Before the advent of Betfair, your only option would be to, for example, place £5 on the draw and £5 on West Ham to win. Total outlay is £10 but you don't know whether your profit would be £27.50 or £60.

With Betfair, you can LAY Chelsea. So as long as they don't win the match. You will be in profit.

Moreover, you can set how much you want to win, although obviously your liability (how much you lose) will increase the higher you go.

Using the Chelsea / West Ham example. Chelsea were available at 1.23 to lay on Betfair (see here for an explanation of how decimal odds work if you aren't sure).

If you laid Chelsea @ £43.50 you would be liable to lose £10 (£43.50 * 0.23 = £10).

But as long as Chelsea lose, or draw, you would have £43.50 profit regardless of the result.

As long as you understand the concept of this with regards to football, it should be easy to make the transition to other sports.

Finally a WARNING - quite often people's first reaction once they understand the concept is to think about laying big priced horses in races they seemingly have no chance of winning. While accepting they will lose £50 if they lay a 25/1 shot on Betfair in order to win £2 (Betfair insists on a minimum stake of £2 so your liability is 25 * £2= £50), I can tell you first hand that it is surprisingly easy to pick a 25/1 winner when you don't mean to.

So please don't think that just because a horse is highly priced, you have a lower risk. 25/1, 50/1 and even 100/1 winners come in more often than you think.

However, where laying can be to your benefit is when it comes to "greening up" or cutting your losses, which we will look at in the second part of this article.

Understanding decimal odds

I intend to write a guide to lay betting, as it is a subject that confuses many people.

However, in order to understand lay betting, you first need to know how decimal odds work as this is the system used by Betfair.

I have to say, when I first began betting on football and horses, decimal odds in the UK were practically non-existent. However, they are somewhat more widespread now and many people will be familiar with them.

Still there are plenty enough people who grew up with fractional odds and may even avoid sites like Betfair to make this article worthwhile.

It is very simple to understand though. Quite simply, you multiply your stake by the number shown and this is your return. Bear in mind though that you need to deduct the value of your stake to calculate your actual profit.

So if a bookie is offering 3.0 in decimal odds (which would be 2/1 as fractional odds) and you place five pounds, you will receive a profit of £10.

It's as simple as that. A couple of things to bear in mind though - always remember when you see, for example, 25.0 you will only actually get 24 times your stake back. 

Also remember to deduct that unit when the odds are below 2.0 (ie. evens). It's easy for beginners to fall into the trap of thinking 1.5 will return a profit equivalent to 6/4 when in fact the fractional equivalent is 1/2.

Below is a table which shows the conversion between fractional and decimal odds.

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Betting Preview

Jamie Donaldson will be looking to repeat last year's success in Abu Dhabi.

While the 2014 European Tour has actually been underway since the beginning of December, to me the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship has, in recent years, been the "first round proper" of the Race to Dubai.

With the likes of Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson and Sergio Garcia playing competitive golf for the first time since their Christmas trees went up, it's hard to argue that this is the event where the big guns feel it's time to come out.

Of course, in an event like this the aforementioned instantly become the bookies' favourites - and, last year aside, McIlroy has knocked on the door at Abu Dhabi in recent years, twice finishing runner up.

But I also can't help but think that a week in the middle-eastern sun serves more as a chance to get match-fit for the heavyweights, than a real opportunity to get their season off to a winning start.

The arrival of these heavyweights, however, is good news for us punters. Players who might otherwise be shorter priced offer better value if you have an inkling of where to look.

First up is Jamie Donaldson. He was an impressive winner in this event last year, and his preparation ahead of it has been markedly similar. Indeed, if we compare like-for-like he finished 16th in the Volvo Champions in South Africa last year and last week just missed out on a top ten finish again after shooting two over on the final day.

There can be no doubt about the Welshman's form either. After winning in Abu Dhabi last year, he continued to have a solid season and went up a gear again at the end of the year, culminating in two second placed finishes.

With Louis Oosthuizen succesfully defending his Volvo Champions title last week, statistically it would be quite unusual for Donaldson to continue this trend in Abu Dhabi. Nevertheless the 28/1 on offer at Boyles Sports makes it quite tempting to believe history can repeat itself, for the second week running.

And while the 9/4 available with Boyles Sports for a top ten finish isn't going to earn enough to retire on, I will be using this as a form of insurance bet as I find it difficult to see him much further down the leaderboard whatever else happens.

Also likely to be in contention is Thorbjørn Oleson. Again he gave a good account of himself in Abu Dhabi last year, finishing second to Donaldson - an improvement on his 8th place the year before.

Oleson was a  consistent performer throughout the 2013, finishing in the money 17 times out of his 24 starts and 2014 could well be the year Oleson adds to his sole 2012 tour win. Abu Dhabi presents an ideal opportunity for the 24-year-old to do this.

The 70/1 on offer with Bet365 presents outstanding each way value in my eyes as this converts to effectively 15/1 for a top five finish with icing on the cake if he goes all the way.

Finally, I'm going to jump on the Matteo Manassero bandwagon. Many people expect big things of the young Italian this year and there are not many tournaments go by where one pundit or another doesn't put him somewhere in the frame in their previews.

I'm no exception this time and the 70/1 being offered by Bet365 makes him an attractive outside proposition for this event.

Advised bets

1 pt EW Jamie Donaldson with Boyles Sports

0.5 pts EW Thorbjørn Oleson with Bet365

0.5 pts EW Matteo Manassero with Bet365 

2 pts Jamie Donaldson top ten finish. with Boyles Sports

(Odds correct at time of publication and are the best odds available for each selection as sourced from www.oddschecker.com )

Taking a different approach

Dawn Approach is the horse on everyone's betting slip ahead of tomorrow's Investec Epsom Derby.
However, as a keen follower of trends in big races, Jim Bolger's three-year-old misses out on one big statistic - it's debut was not made at a Group One track.

On the face of it this stat seems rather innocuous, but experience has taught me you can never write off the trends and every winner over the past twenty years has begun their career on a Group One track.
Why this has an effect is open to debate - one theory goes that the owners and trainers know what they have in their hands and so prepare them from the beginning.

Dawn Approach flies in the face of this theory, given he was sired by Bolger's only other Derby success -2008 winner New Approach - so one would assume that Godolphin were fully aware of the horse's ability.
Indeed, Dawn Approach didn't even get to a group one track the second time out, again running on a Yielding Naas track.

While the wins there under the conditions will give reassurances about the stamina, I'm nevertheless going to plump for a horse that ticks all the boxes - Battle of Marengo.

Placing third first time out at Leopardstown, BoM has since been unbeaten and at the time of writing is the only other horse shorter than 6/1 with the bookies - both of these factors matching up with the trends.

The 5/1 price generally available on BoM could move out over the next 24 hours as more money goes on DA but this will again only help meet the criteria, as only two clear favourites have won the renewal in the past 10 years.

It would be foolhardy to completely eliminate Dawn Approach and so the decision is whether to back Battle of Marengo without Dawn Approach (3/1 at Stan James) or take advantage of BetVictor's offer of returning all net losses should Dawn Approach win and Back BoM at fives - an insurance policy if you will.
Whatever you decide, good luck!

US Masters 2013

If you are a golf fan then you don't need me to tell you that the Masters - considered by many to be the "season opener" begins this weekend and I have no doubt, like me, you are pacing the floor in anticipation.

However for the more casual observer, the first of the year's four Majors still presents a great opportunity to make some cash at the bookies' expense.

Golf is great sport to bet on for two reasons.

Firstly, the odds available often offer great value with some high prices even for the fancied participants.

Secondly, you are betting on one individual human being whose form, past performances at the course and preparation are all influencing factors. This obviously differs to - let's say - horse racing, where you are betting on an animal that can be unpredictable despite the aforementioned factors; or a football match where you have a full team of players whose mentality needs to be considered.

Sadly if this is your first time betting on golf, the value I alluded to in my first point isn't on offer with this year's favourite. Tiger Woods is understandably the bookies' pick, indeed for that matter he is mine as well as we look ahead to the tournament.

However, he is generally only available at 4/1 and I'm afraid the risks outweigh the benefits for this particular bet. And I hate to say it but while Rory McIlroy is much better value at 8/1, instinct is telling me to stay away from him given his leniency towards unpredictability and the current questions over the Nike equipment in his bag.

While another beauty of golf betting is the each-way market - generally you get a quarter of the odds  for a top five finsish  - Tiger's price means the best you can hope for is your money back if he fails to emerge from the clubhouse on Sunday wearing the green jacket.

Instead the way to go is to look for golfers who could make a promising start in the early stages, or alternatively ones who show the potential to make the top ten.

In the first category Justin Rose fits the bill. He's not number three in the world for no reason and has had a solid start to 2013 finishing in the top five in his two tournaments. Rose can be expected to make a strong start and at a whopping 20/1 with Bet365, presents a perfect opportunity to place a bet with a view to laying after the second or third day. Of course to lay you need a Betfair account - click here to open one - and if you're not entirely sure how to go about it see this guide.

In the second category, Bill Haas and Lee Westwood are my picks. Haas has had a decent start to the year with five top ten finishes and he can take his promising form to Augusta. Betvictor go 6/1 for the top ten finish and this presents fantastic value for a player whose profile is in the ascendancy.

To use golf parlance, Westwood is as close as you can get to a gimme for a top ten finish. Best priced 9/4 with Paddy Power, you are not going to retire on your winnings but take into account that Worksop's golden boy has geared his entire preparation around this event and it offers a good opportunity as a cover bet should the other two not fulfil their potential.

My concern with Westwood is his putting - crucial at Augusta - and despite reports that his Ping Scottsdale is on fire on the practice green, the proof is in the pudding and I'm not prepared to tip him for the very top at this stage.

Finally no Masters betting review can be complete without a nod to Phil Mickleson. He's only one win behind Tiger at Augusta and will be in the frame again this time. However he offers no value for a top ten finish and while Stan James' 12/1 for the win is attractive, I still can't get past the Tiger factor. What effectively equates to 2/1 for a top five finish should he not come out on tops means I will have to overlook "Lefty" on this occasion.