RBS Six Nations 2014 Championship preview

They say the bookie always wins... well it's not surprising when you look at the odds available for the forthcoming Six Nations tournament.

Even excluding Scotland and Italy from the equation, some firms have an over-round way above 110%.

Now don't get me wrong, this Six Nations promises to be a thriller and it really will be a close one to call.

And of course I don't expect bookmakers to run themselves as a charity, but the 2/1 generally available on Wales to win the championship just does not represent value.

What the traders are saying is Wales have a 33% chance of winning outright, but quite frankly any one of Wales, England, Ireland and France are in with a shout this year.

Added to this fact is that history is not on the side of the Taffs. No team has won three successive championships in over a century, and traditionally the country which has provided the backbone of a successful Lions tour seldom goes on to do well in the next home championship.

There will be many pundits who think laying Wales might be an option, but I would also counter that you write a Warren Gatland team off at your peril.

The quality in the Welsh side is plain for all to see - North, Halfpenny, Warburton, Falateu come instantly to mind and a few other besides - so really, to my mind, there is no bet to be had on the outright winner of the championship.

Backing Wales isn't worth the risk and the lay is too much of a risk.

However, all is not lost. Betvictor is offering a forecast market - where you select the teams who will occupy first and second place -  and all of a sudden things become more interesting.

Let us firstly assume Wales will finish in the top two. While history may be against them, they are nonetheless the strongest side on paper before a ball is kicked.

Ireland will miss Sean O'Brien

They are also experienced, while still largely youthful, and the spine of the side has played together for some time now. Gatland and Shaun Edwards are not the type of characters to allow complacency to set in with the players, or egos to become too largely inflated, either so while the Dragons may not go all the way, they will be sniffing round the trophy come the end of March.

Let's also eliminate Ireland from the equation. A bold and dangerous thing to do but firstly Sean O'Brien's absence will be a bitter blow to them and trips to France and England will not make this an easy tournament.

Wales have also recorded a couple of victories on Dublin soil in recent years, and save for a first half capitulation last year, have had the better of the Irish in the past four encounters.

So that's three tough games for an Ireland side that still isn't quite where it might be going into this tournament.

We must also, without going into too much detail, assume Scotland and Italy will not be mixing it at the top end of the table this year. Both will have their part to play and will no doubt provide at least one or two shocks before spring has sprung but the overwhelming evidence is that neither side has the ability to make too much of an impact.

So that leaves us with England and France, and really, where to begin?

No one ever knows what to expect from our cousins across the channel in any season, and this one is no different.

However, one thing is for sure - the pressure is on coach Philippe Saint-André to get results this time round if he is to still be gainfully employed in April.

And with home games against England and Ireland, Wales looks to be the sternest test Les Bleus face on paper.

England coach Stuart Lancaster

England on the other hand have gone from strength to strength under Stuart Lancaster and to date, they have only two Six Nations defeats - both against Wales - to their name since he took over.

They have home advantage over Wales, but this is practically nullified when you consider the Welsh side's results at Twickenham in recent years.

And the Red Rose must also trek north of the border. The Scots enjoy nothing more than spoiling an English party and no doubt feel that another Calcutta Cup upset is well overdue. Indeed, if one was to try to pinpoint the shock I referred to earlier then this game would undoubtedly be one on the shortlist.

So in summary, on the face of it Wales could have the beating of all five of their opponents if they play to their ability and stay injury-free.

England have tough tests against both the Welsh and French, while the Calcutta Cup holds no promises for them.

France, however, have a lot to prove and if they fulfil their potential will indeed do so. If keeping Saint-André in a job is top of the players' priorities then the Wales v France match on February 21 could well be the championship - if not Grand Slam - decider.

So with Betvictor offering 6/1 on Wales to finish first and France second, and the same price on the opposite happening, you can buy yourself an effective 5/1 reverse forecast on both Wales/France options, which represents far greater value than the outright market.