RBS Six Nations 2014 Championship preview

They say the bookie always wins... well it's not surprising when you look at the odds available for the forthcoming Six Nations tournament.

Even excluding Scotland and Italy from the equation, some firms have an over-round way above 110%.

Now don't get me wrong, this Six Nations promises to be a thriller and it really will be a close one to call.

And of course I don't expect bookmakers to run themselves as a charity, but the 2/1 generally available on Wales to win the championship just does not represent value.

What the traders are saying is Wales have a 33% chance of winning outright, but quite frankly any one of Wales, England, Ireland and France are in with a shout this year.

Added to this fact is that history is not on the side of the Taffs. No team has won three successive championships in over a century, and traditionally the country which has provided the backbone of a successful Lions tour seldom goes on to do well in the next home championship.

There will be many pundits who think laying Wales might be an option, but I would also counter that you write a Warren Gatland team off at your peril.

The quality in the Welsh side is plain for all to see - North, Halfpenny, Warburton, Falateu come instantly to mind and a few other besides - so really, to my mind, there is no bet to be had on the outright winner of the championship.

Backing Wales isn't worth the risk and the lay is too much of a risk.

However, all is not lost. Betvictor is offering a forecast market - where you select the teams who will occupy first and second place -  and all of a sudden things become more interesting.

Let us firstly assume Wales will finish in the top two. While history may be against them, they are nonetheless the strongest side on paper before a ball is kicked.

Ireland will miss Sean O'Brien

They are also experienced, while still largely youthful, and the spine of the side has played together for some time now. Gatland and Shaun Edwards are not the type of characters to allow complacency to set in with the players, or egos to become too largely inflated, either so while the Dragons may not go all the way, they will be sniffing round the trophy come the end of March.

Let's also eliminate Ireland from the equation. A bold and dangerous thing to do but firstly Sean O'Brien's absence will be a bitter blow to them and trips to France and England will not make this an easy tournament.

Wales have also recorded a couple of victories on Dublin soil in recent years, and save for a first half capitulation last year, have had the better of the Irish in the past four encounters.

So that's three tough games for an Ireland side that still isn't quite where it might be going into this tournament.

We must also, without going into too much detail, assume Scotland and Italy will not be mixing it at the top end of the table this year. Both will have their part to play and will no doubt provide at least one or two shocks before spring has sprung but the overwhelming evidence is that neither side has the ability to make too much of an impact.

So that leaves us with England and France, and really, where to begin?

No one ever knows what to expect from our cousins across the channel in any season, and this one is no different.

However, one thing is for sure - the pressure is on coach Philippe Saint-André to get results this time round if he is to still be gainfully employed in April.

And with home games against England and Ireland, Wales looks to be the sternest test Les Bleus face on paper.

England coach Stuart Lancaster

England on the other hand have gone from strength to strength under Stuart Lancaster and to date, they have only two Six Nations defeats - both against Wales - to their name since he took over.

They have home advantage over Wales, but this is practically nullified when you consider the Welsh side's results at Twickenham in recent years.

And the Red Rose must also trek north of the border. The Scots enjoy nothing more than spoiling an English party and no doubt feel that another Calcutta Cup upset is well overdue. Indeed, if one was to try to pinpoint the shock I referred to earlier then this game would undoubtedly be one on the shortlist.

So in summary, on the face of it Wales could have the beating of all five of their opponents if they play to their ability and stay injury-free.

England have tough tests against both the Welsh and French, while the Calcutta Cup holds no promises for them.

France, however, have a lot to prove and if they fulfil their potential will indeed do so. If keeping Saint-André in a job is top of the players' priorities then the Wales v France match on February 21 could well be the championship - if not Grand Slam - decider.

So with Betvictor offering 6/1 on Wales to finish first and France second, and the same price on the opposite happening, you can buy yourself an effective 5/1 reverse forecast on both Wales/France options, which represents far greater value than the outright market.

Understanding what lay betting is (Part 1)

An area of betting guaranteed to cause confusion for many is lay betting.

I quite often talk about "laying on Betfair" to people who otherwise thoroughly understand betting, but who don't have a clue even what the term means.

More often than not, they will then glaze over when you try to elaborate on the basic - it's when you bet on something to lose rather than to win.

However, if you have read this fair then clearly you do want to know. So here I will give you my take on how it works.

Let's begin by looking at a football match from this weekend and the odds available on that match.

Chelsea were largely available at 1/5 to beat West Ham. The draw was 11/2 and West Ham were around 12/1 for the win.

Let's say you had a feeling it was a game Chelsea weren't going to win. You were not sure whether it would be a West Ham win or a draw, but you wanted to place a bet on.

Before the advent of Betfair, your only option would be to, for example, place £5 on the draw and £5 on West Ham to win. Total outlay is £10 but you don't know whether your profit would be £27.50 or £60.

With Betfair, you can LAY Chelsea. So as long as they don't win the match. You will be in profit.

Moreover, you can set how much you want to win, although obviously your liability (how much you lose) will increase the higher you go.

Using the Chelsea / West Ham example. Chelsea were available at 1.23 to lay on Betfair (see here for an explanation of how decimal odds work if you aren't sure).

If you laid Chelsea @ £43.50 you would be liable to lose £10 (£43.50 * 0.23 = £10).

But as long as Chelsea lose, or draw, you would have £43.50 profit regardless of the result.

As long as you understand the concept of this with regards to football, it should be easy to make the transition to other sports.

Finally a WARNING - quite often people's first reaction once they understand the concept is to think about laying big priced horses in races they seemingly have no chance of winning. While accepting they will lose £50 if they lay a 25/1 shot on Betfair in order to win £2 (Betfair insists on a minimum stake of £2 so your liability is 25 * £2= £50), I can tell you first hand that it is surprisingly easy to pick a 25/1 winner when you don't mean to.

So please don't think that just because a horse is highly priced, you have a lower risk. 25/1, 50/1 and even 100/1 winners come in more often than you think.

However, where laying can be to your benefit is when it comes to "greening up" or cutting your losses, which we will look at in the second part of this article.

Understanding decimal odds

I intend to write a guide to lay betting, as it is a subject that confuses many people.

However, in order to understand lay betting, you first need to know how decimal odds work as this is the system used by Betfair.

I have to say, when I first began betting on football and horses, decimal odds in the UK were practically non-existent. However, they are somewhat more widespread now and many people will be familiar with them.

Still there are plenty enough people who grew up with fractional odds and may even avoid sites like Betfair to make this article worthwhile.

It is very simple to understand though. Quite simply, you multiply your stake by the number shown and this is your return. Bear in mind though that you need to deduct the value of your stake to calculate your actual profit.

So if a bookie is offering 3.0 in decimal odds (which would be 2/1 as fractional odds) and you place five pounds, you will receive a profit of £10.

It's as simple as that. A couple of things to bear in mind though - always remember when you see, for example, 25.0 you will only actually get 24 times your stake back. 

Also remember to deduct that unit when the odds are below 2.0 (ie. evens). It's easy for beginners to fall into the trap of thinking 1.5 will return a profit equivalent to 6/4 when in fact the fractional equivalent is 1/2.

Below is a table which shows the conversion between fractional and decimal odds.

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Betting Preview

Jamie Donaldson will be looking to repeat last year's success in Abu Dhabi.

While the 2014 European Tour has actually been underway since the beginning of December, to me the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship has, in recent years, been the "first round proper" of the Race to Dubai.

With the likes of Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson and Sergio Garcia playing competitive golf for the first time since their Christmas trees went up, it's hard to argue that this is the event where the big guns feel it's time to come out.

Of course, in an event like this the aforementioned instantly become the bookies' favourites - and, last year aside, McIlroy has knocked on the door at Abu Dhabi in recent years, twice finishing runner up.

But I also can't help but think that a week in the middle-eastern sun serves more as a chance to get match-fit for the heavyweights, than a real opportunity to get their season off to a winning start.

The arrival of these heavyweights, however, is good news for us punters. Players who might otherwise be shorter priced offer better value if you have an inkling of where to look.

First up is Jamie Donaldson. He was an impressive winner in this event last year, and his preparation ahead of it has been markedly similar. Indeed, if we compare like-for-like he finished 16th in the Volvo Champions in South Africa last year and last week just missed out on a top ten finish again after shooting two over on the final day.

There can be no doubt about the Welshman's form either. After winning in Abu Dhabi last year, he continued to have a solid season and went up a gear again at the end of the year, culminating in two second placed finishes.

With Louis Oosthuizen succesfully defending his Volvo Champions title last week, statistically it would be quite unusual for Donaldson to continue this trend in Abu Dhabi. Nevertheless the 28/1 on offer at Boyles Sports makes it quite tempting to believe history can repeat itself, for the second week running.

And while the 9/4 available with Boyles Sports for a top ten finish isn't going to earn enough to retire on, I will be using this as a form of insurance bet as I find it difficult to see him much further down the leaderboard whatever else happens.

Also likely to be in contention is Thorbjørn Oleson. Again he gave a good account of himself in Abu Dhabi last year, finishing second to Donaldson - an improvement on his 8th place the year before.

Oleson was a  consistent performer throughout the 2013, finishing in the money 17 times out of his 24 starts and 2014 could well be the year Oleson adds to his sole 2012 tour win. Abu Dhabi presents an ideal opportunity for the 24-year-old to do this.

The 70/1 on offer with Bet365 presents outstanding each way value in my eyes as this converts to effectively 15/1 for a top five finish with icing on the cake if he goes all the way.

Finally, I'm going to jump on the Matteo Manassero bandwagon. Many people expect big things of the young Italian this year and there are not many tournaments go by where one pundit or another doesn't put him somewhere in the frame in their previews.

I'm no exception this time and the 70/1 being offered by Bet365 makes him an attractive outside proposition for this event.

Advised bets

1 pt EW Jamie Donaldson with Boyles Sports

0.5 pts EW Thorbjørn Oleson with Bet365

0.5 pts EW Matteo Manassero with Bet365 

2 pts Jamie Donaldson top ten finish. with Boyles Sports

(Odds correct at time of publication and are the best odds available for each selection as sourced from www.oddschecker.com )